It was announced this past June that would-be world middleweight title holder Canelo Alvarez will fight Liam Smith this September, and many boxing fans were left scratching their heads. For various reasons (mostly financial), Alvarez vacated his world title earlier this year, effectively yielding it to the hulking, undefeated Kazakhstani Gennady Golovkin. Many hoped that the two would be paired together for a bout in the coming months, but for now, they’ll continue circling one another.
Alvarez won his promptly vacated title in May with a convincing sixth-round knockout of Amir Khan in Las Vegas. That outcome actually fell into the range of fight predictions made by leading betting markets (with a win in rounds four to six having the strongest odds of any outcome, at 3/1). It also proved that Canelo Alvarez is just about the fighter we imagine him to be, because in his class, so far as we know, he’s currently unmatched. Amir Khan is a speedy and talented fighter, but Canelo’s power and growing experience were simply too much for the challenger to handle, and we got the outcome we expected. Golovkin, even before Alvarez vacated the title to him, seemed the only logical path forward as a challenger with a legitimate shot to compete.
But here we are, and suddenly we’re two months away from an Alvarez-Smith fight that on the surface seems pretty lopsided. That’s no disrespect to Smith, who has 13 KOs in a 23-0-1 career to date. But taking a clear look at both fighters, it’s hard not to come to the same conclusion as former super-welterweight champion Ryan Rhodes: that this fight is a step too far for Smith. Canelo Alvarez is simply a more powerful fighter, and he probably goes in with a technical advantage as well. Frankly, it looks somewhat similar to the Khan fight.
Then again, it’s also possible that Smith is being underestimated by boxing fans simply given his lower profile. One analysis compared Smith to Manny Pacquiao. It didn’t suggest that they have similar skill sets or that Smith will ever be anywhere near as successful, but it pointed out that Pacquiao was also once an unknown challenger. Smith, the analysis went on to describe, has a nasty streak in him and is hungry for the opportunity of a showdown with Alvarez. And for what it’s worth, some fans seem to think that will be enough. Smith even came out on top in a poll about which Briton has the best shot at upsetting the odds in upcoming fights.
So what is Smith doing fighting Alvarez? Well, the obvious answer is that he’s trying to win. But as for whether or not this fight is worth the fans’ attention, it depends on your perspective. Alvarez is going to be a very heavy favorite, but there are reasons to believe this is still a bout worth tuning in to see.